Why Donald Trump Secured a Major Step in Gaza Yet Struggles With Vladimir Putin Concerning the Ukraine Conflict
Accounts of an upcoming American-Russian presidential meeting have been overstated, apparently.
Only a few days after President Trump said he planned to confer with Russia's leader Vladimir Putin in the Hungarian capital - "in approximately a fortnight" - the summit has been put off without a new date.
A initial meeting by the both countries' top diplomats has been cancelled, too.
"I prefer not to have a fruitless discussion," President Trump told the press at the executive mansion on Tuesday afternoon. "I aim to avoid a pointless effort, so I will observe what happens."
- Trump says he wished to avoid a 'unproductive session' after arrangement for Putin talks shelved
- Disappointment in Ukraine's capital as President Zelensky leaves White House empty-handed
The on-again, off-again summit is just the latest development in Trump's efforts to broker an end to hostilities in the Eastern European nation – a subject of renewed focus for the American leader after he orchestrated a truce and prisoner exchange deal in the Palestinian territory.
During a speech in Egypt recently to commemorate that truce deal, Trump addressed his lead diplomatic negotiator, with a fresh directive.
"It is essential to get Russia resolved," he declared.
Nonetheless, the circumstances that aligned to make a Gaza breakthrough possible for Witkoff and his team may be difficult to duplicate in a Ukraine war that has been raging for almost four years.
Reduced Influence
According to the lead negotiator, the crucial element to unlocking a deal was Israel's move to attack representatives of Hamas in Qatar. It was a action that infuriated America's Arab allies but provided Trump leverage to compel Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu into reaching an agreement.
The US president gained from a long record of siding with the Israeli state since his first term, encompassing his choice to move the US embassy to the contested city, to change US policy on the lawfulness of Jewish communities in the occupied territories and, in recent times, his support for Israel's military campaign against the Islamic Republic.
The US president, in fact, is more popular among Israelis than Netanyahu – a position that provided him with unique influence over the nation's head.
Combine Trump's political and economic ties to key Arab players in the area, and he had a wealth of negotiating strength to force an agreement.
Regarding the conflict in Ukraine, by contrast, Trump has significantly reduced influence. In recent months, he has swung between attempts to pressure Putin and then the Ukrainian leader, all with little seeming effect.
The US leader has warned to enact new sanctions on Russian energy exports and to provide the Ukrainian forces with new long-range weapons. But he has also recognised that doing so could disrupt the world's financial stability and intensify the conflict.
At the same time, the president has publicly berated Zelensky, temporarily cutting off intelligence-sharing with the country and pausing weapon deliveries to the nation - then to retreat in the wake of concerned European allies who caution a defeat of Ukraine could destabilise the entire region.
The president loves to tout his skill to meet and hammer out agreements, but his personal discussions with both Putin and Zelensky haven't seemed to move the war any closer to a resolution.
Putin may actually be using Trump's desire for a settlement – and faith in direct negotiations - as a means of manipulating him.
During the summer, Putin consented to a summit in Alaska just as it seemed probable that Trump would approve on congressional sanctions package supported by Senate Republicans. That bill was subsequently put on hold.
Recently, as news emerged that the US administration was seriously contemplating shipping long-range missiles and Patriot anti-air batteries to Ukraine, the Russian leader called Trump who then touted the possible meeting in Budapest.
The following day, the president hosted Zelensky at the executive residence, but left without agreements after a reportedly tense meeting.
The US leader maintained that he was not being manipulated by the Russian president.
"As you are aware, I have been manipulated all my life by skilled operators, and I emerged really well," he remarked.
However the Ukrainian leader subsequently made note of the timeline of developments.
"As soon as the matter of long-range mobility became a less accessible for us – for Ukraine – the Russian side quickly became less interested in negotiations," he stated.
So, in a matter of days, the president has bounced from entertaining the prospect of sending missiles to the Eastern European country to planning a Budapest summit with Russia's leader and privately pressuring the Ukrainian president to cede the entire Donbas region – including land Russian forces has been unable to conquer.
He has ultimately decided on calling for a ceasefire along current battle lines – something the Russian government has refused to accept.
On the campaign trail previously, Trump promised that he could end the Ukraine war in a very short time. He has since abandoned that commitment, saying that ending the hostilities is proving harder than he anticipated.
It has been a uncommon admission of the limits of his authority – and the challenge of establishing a peace plan when both parties desires, or can afford to, cease hostilities.