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Only 48 hours prior to the NYC race for mayor, political analyst Michael Lange made a bold electoral prediction – not just the winner overall, and block by block. The analyst, an expert in elections who grew up in New York City, devoted over a decade in left-leaning activism and has become something of a well-known figure this year for his deep dives into city data and polling.

He released his highly detailed forecast map – accurately predicting that Zohran Mamdani would win while failed to predict Andrew Cuomo’s solid showing – on his newsletter, his platform. Lange possesses a talent for witty coinages. He pointed out, as an example, the split between the “commie corridor”, stretching from one neighborhood to another area to Astoria, where he predicted (correctly) that the left-wing candidate would win by large leads, and the “capitalist corridor” on affluent parts of Manhattan. There, certain media outlets and Wall Street Journal outrank the New York Times” in audience and the majority of electors leaned toward the independent, campaigning as a conservative-courting independent.

Election Night Trends and Surprises

How was your election night?

I had to do that since they were dropping approximately 200K votes into the tally frequently! I was actually somewhat anxious initially: Mamdani was ahead the early vote by 12 points, but there were large groups of votes that came in after that and his lead dropped from 12 to 8%. I was worried.

You know, there was a world in which yesterday turned out kind of poorly for Mamdani, in which Cuomo was going to end up essentially doubling his votes from the earlier contest. However the winner gained 500,000 supporters to his primary coalition, and this was critical why he won. He campaigned and greatly broadened his base from the primary.

Coalition Building

Where did Mamdani gain those extra votes from?

He assembled the coalition that progressives long aimed for: it’s multiracial, youthful, tenants and individuals squeezed by affordability. He gained considerably with minority communities, working- and middle-class voters, compared to the primary. Plus he boosted his base of liberal progressives, young leftists, and Muslims and south Asians. He couldn’t have won without expanding his appeal.

He built the alliance that progressives long aimed for: multiracial, youthful, renters and residents squeezed by affordability

There were also some supporters of both candidates – is this significant?

It’s definitely a genuine phenomenon, limited to working-class Latinos, Asian communities and Muslims. Voters in ethnic enclaves that went for Trump previously went for Zohran this year. However it’s not that he was gaining white working-class voters and Maga voters.

Turnout and Impact

A major development of the election was the sky-high participation. Who did that help?

Each candidate. Turnout was significantly higher than I had expected. I figured we might exceed 2 million, but it’s closer to 2.3 million – that is a huge number of participants. There was a decent opposition group, who were motivated, but his supporters was equally driven, and that sufficed to win.

You predicted he’d get over half the ballots. Is he likely for that?

Currently you would say he’s likely to get over 50%. He has just over 50% but there’s still around 200,000 votes left to report at that time. Thus it’s not certain, but I think probable, and I hope he achieves it so then none can claim the Republican was a disruptor.

GOP Decline

The GOP candidate, the conservative contender, was another surprise. His support completely collapsed.

He lost a single precinct in any area. Not even one neighborhood in the borough, similar to an highly conservative neighborhood. That truly surprised me. The independent held very white areas, affluent zones and devout communities, and plus gained all of these conservatives on the island with a high participation. I believe there was a lot of tactical voting by GOP voters. They were doing it prior to the former president tweeted his support for the candidate, but that definitely helped. It could have even turned the tide if Mamdani’s coalition failed to expand.

The “Commie Corridor”

Regarding your often-discussed left-wing base – did backing for the candidate dominant in those areas of Brooklyn and Queens?

In my view there was a little dilution of the progressive zone in certain places like Astoria or Greenpoint that have more older white ethnic folks. There, for example, the Greek landlords and residents all went for the independent. So there was a little resistance. But overall, mostly the commie corridor is a key factor why Zohran prevailed – he scored between 77% and 83% in specific neighborhoods.

Jewish Voters

In the lead-up to the vote we reported on whether the candidate was gaining ground with the community. Any indication that he succeeded?

There are neighborhoods with many non-religious and left-inclined voters – like Park Slope and Morningside Heights – where he did well. But in the wealthy Jewish communities like the Manhattan area, his position on Israel was influential in those places. Similarly in the more middle-class Jewish areas like Forest Hills, Rego Park, or Bronx areas – they all leaned Cuomo. And also, there are Jewish immigrants from Eastern Europe in the borough, they were strongly supportive. So I don’t know if there were crazy narrative-busters here, but Mamdani did hold more progressive Jewish neighborhoods and even parts of the another locale by big margins.

Long-Term Significance

Did Mamdani redefine what the city represents in politics? Will commie corridor become a launch pad for progressive contenders?

Yes, it’s no coincidence that some of the biggest figures from progressives come from a handful of neighborhoods in the boroughs. I believe that there will be additional examples – people will emerge from these neighborhoods to be elevated nationally.

However I think that each urban center in America could develop similar progressive hubs. Cities are the centers of progressive influence in America – since they’re young, people rent and they represent locales where individuals struggle by the inequalities we face.