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Two days remaining.

The English side's opening match in Australia starts on Friday morning.

With the help of cricket statistics experts, we look at where the highly awaited Ashes series in years could be determined.

It's tough to score runs, right?

Batters on both teams of the Ashes rivalry might be questioning why they are even planning to show up.

Much of the pre-series discussion has focused on the perceived difficulty of scoring runs, especially for the first Test on a Perth pitch described as a "green monster".

When it comes to playing in Australian conditions, particularly against fast bowling, no nation has been harder in which to accumulate runs over the past five years.

Two key factors for this: pitches and cricket balls.

Taken as a collective, the pitches produced in Australia have recently proved to be the fastest, highest bouncing and among the least predictable in the world.

Pace and variable bounce are the ideal combination for difficult batting conditions.

A common belief from England's cricketing circles paints the Kookaburra ball used in this country as a ineffective weapon for a pace bowler.

An updated model of the Kookaburra was rolled out six years ago, leading to more seam movement.

Seam is a more significant asset than swing in Australian conditions.

Since the new Kookaburra, fast bowlers are conceding 25 runs per wicket in Australia.

Test cricket is about solving problems.

When the ball is on top, batsmen's contributions can be the deciding factor, and vice-versa.

If this Ashes be dominated by the ball, a batter could have the chance to be the key factor between the two teams.

What's going on with the Australian pace attack?

For once, England have toured Australia with their pace attack largely intact, while the home side are the ones hit by injuries.

Skipper Pat Cummins will be absent for the opening match with a back injury, and Josh Hazlewood is on the sidelines for an unspecified time because of a hamstring problem.

Cummins, Josh Hazlewood and Mitchell Starc were first united as a three-pronged attack for the 2017-18 series.

Since then, they have taken together 81% of the dismissals taken by Australia pace bowlers in matches in Australia.

The Australian team have rarely had to look elsewhere because of the effectiveness and robustness of the 'big three'.

On the occasions Australia have required support, Scott Boland has been outstanding, taking 62 dismissals in 14 matches at an average under 17.

In addition to Boland, other members of the backup squad have stepped up.

Neser, Richardson and James Pattinson all average below 30 in home Tests.

The most recent occasion Australia went into a home match without Cummins and Hazlewood, and were defeated, was in 2012.

On the last two occasions they have played at home without the duo, they have triumphed by a combined 694 runs, featuring a victory against England in Adelaide previously.

In infrequent cases Australia have had to go past their star fast bowlers, results have not been affected – The tourists should take heed.

Tough at the top

Remember when England could not find an opener to go alongside Alastair Cook?

Cook went through partners faster than Watford go through managers.

Not anymore.

Since Duckett and Crawley were paired at the top of the England order at the end of 2022, no opening pair in the world has produced more runs together.

Their success as a combination has been a factor in Crawley being backed through some inconsistent times.

The Kent man, who memorably hit the initial delivery of the last Ashes series for a boundary, has also been recognized as having the technique for Australian conditions.

His batting average increases when the bowling gets faster.

In comparison, the Australian opening lineup is in a constant state of flux, still seeking to fill the gap left by David Warner.

Following Warner's departure at the beginning of 2024, Usman Khawaja has batted with five different partners in 15 matches.

Uncapped Weatherald appears likely to become the sixth in 16 on the opening day, giving Australia an all-left-handed opening combo.

It is not just the openers that has caused problems for Australia.

Labuschagne, Australia's long-term number three, was moved to open for the WTC final, then dropped entirely.

Domestic form has brought him back, most likely returning to number three.

In seven Tests in the current year, Australia's top three have a combined average of 25.37.

Only the opening trios of Zimbabwe and West Indies have done worse.

Battle of Spin

For two so evenly-matched teams, there is a single department where Australia are clearly stronger – spin bowling.

Australia's Nathan Lyon, with 562 Test wickets of him, is among the best finger-spinners to play the game.

England's Shoaib Bashir is a moderately successful selection punt, looking short of form after a broken finger, while Jacks is mainly a batsman.

It would seem logical for the home team to want Lyon at the front, but spin bowling has been incredibly hard work in Australia for the past 10 years.

In that time, slow bowlers have averaged nearly 44 in Australia, albeit Lyon's record holds up well compared to the struggles of overseas spinners.

Another challenge for Lyon is actually bowling enough overs.

Remember the effectiveness of pace bowling?

It limits Lyon's time with ball in hand.

During the 2017-18 series here, Nathan Lyon was bowling 50 overs per Test.

In the previous year, in five matches against India, it was only half as many.

Tests in Australia are 25% shorter since the new Kookaburra was introduced, meaning the spinner has less space to influence the game.

Favorable Conditions?

England have a unfortunate tendency of being beaten in an away Ashes before Santa Claus has loaded his sleigh.

Traditionally, the series traditionally started in the Gabba, where they have not won since 1986.

In recent times, that has been followed with a floodlit Test in Adelaide Oval.

The visitors have a single victory in seven day-night matches worldwide, while the hosts have won 13 out of 14.

Then on to Perth, a venue England have visited 14 times since 1970 and won only once, against a weakened Australia in 1978.

On this tour, the initial three venues on the itinerary are the same, only in a rearranged order and under altered conditions.

The Perth Test hosts an Ashes opener for the first occasion, not at the fabled Waca – site of past English struggles – but the modern Perth Stadium.

It remains a tough assignment, though one the visitors tackle with no past burdens.

Brisbane is the venue for the second match, the day-nighter.

The last time Australia played a pink-ball Test at the Gabba, they were stunned by West Indies.

Similarly, the Aussies are now not used to playing day matches at the typical floodlit ground Adelaide.

Across two traditional Tests played in the Adelaide since 2014, Australia were defeated once, to India, in 2018.

The re-jigged schedule gives England a new opportunity at beginning an overseas series positively, albeit with pitfalls.

Australia have secured victory in four of the five Tests played at the new Perth ground, though the single loss came in the most recent match – against India the previous year.

Each match at the new ground has been claimed by the team setting a target.

England often overthink day-night matches, when statistics suggest the pink ball does not behave very differently from its red counterpart.

The challenge in {day-night matches|