🔗 Share this article

Voting has commenced for general elections in Holland, with current polling data suggesting that the far-right firebrand Geert Wilders and his PVV party may repeat their win the most seats, although experts believe PVV is unlikely of joining the future coalition.

Survey Results and Election Dynamics

The PVV, which previously pulled off a surprise top result and established a multi-party right-leaning government that collapsed within a year, is currently slightly leading in surveys and is forecast to secure between 24 to 28 MPs in the 150-member house of representatives.

However, PVV's popularity has declined since 2023, when it secured 37 seats. All major parties have stated they will not entering into a coalition with the PVV leader, who triggered the fall of the previous government in June over disagreements concerning his controversial immigration plans.

Key Contenders and Projections

Following a election period dominated by topics such as migration, healthcare costs, and the nation's acute housing crisis, the centre-left GL/PvdA coalition, led by former European commissioner Frans Timmermans, is placed a near second, projected to win between 22 and 26 seats.

Also performing well is the liberal-progressive D66, projected to increase its seat count by almost five times to 21-25 seats, while the right-leaning Christian Democrats (CDA) is expected to more than double its seat tally to between 18 to 22.

The outgoing cabinet members – which included the Freedom Party, VVD, populist Farmer-Citizen Movement (BBB), and NSC – are all projected to see their representation reduced, with several experiencing significant declines.

Voting Process and Fragmentation

Under the Netherlands' electoral system, gaining just less than one percent of the national vote earns a party a seat in parliament. Of the 27 parties participating in the vote – including parties for the over-50s, for youth, animal rights parties, for a universal basic income, and sports parties – as many as 16 could enter the legislature.

This high degree of fragmentation means that no one party is ever likely to secure a majority, and the Netherlands has been ruled by multi-party governments – often including four parties in recent governments – for over 100 years.

Post-Election Scenarios

Wilders has stated that "the democratic process would end" in the Netherlands if the his party ends up as the biggest group yet is excluded from government. However, opponents and experts say that winning the most seats does not assure a role in the coalition and that any governing alliance with a parliamentary majority is a democratic outcome.

Although the election result is uncertain and coalition talks could take months, analysts indicate that following the most extreme government in recent memory, the future government is likely to be a inclusive alliance led by either the centre-left or moderate right.

Voting Process

Polling stations, including those in the Madurodam model village in The Hague and the Anne Frank house in Amsterdam, began operations at 7.30am (6.30am GMT) and will close at 9pm. A usually accurate post-voting survey is expected shortly after closing time.

Once voting concludes, an official negotiator will explore potential governing alliances that could command a majority in parliament. Potential partners will then draft a governing pact for the coming term and must face a vote of confidence in parliament before assuming power.